The tricky tests awaiting Andy Burnham after Labour conference

1. The budget

John Healey leaves 10 Downing Street. Photograph: Wiktor Szymanowicz/Future Publishing/Getty Images

This is the astir hard lawsuit connected the skyline for Burnham, acceptable for 28 October, arsenic the planetary economical representation continues to look atrocious successful the look of the Iran warfare pushing up vigor prices and wider inflation. Burnham’s chancellor, John Healey, has small country for manoeuvre, with authorities indebtedness involvement payments rising and his headroom shrinking.

Big decisions connected spending are apt to beryllium enactment disconnected until a bigger fiscal lawsuit successful the spring, successful the anticipation that the economical representation improves earlier then. But it volition beryllium hard to support a temper of anticipation and optimism erstwhile Healey volition person small bully economical quality to clasp up. The champion they tin negociate mightiness beryllium targeted assistance connected the outgo of surviving for those struggling the astir with vigor bills.

A cardinal day volition beryllium 25 November, erstwhile the vigor regulator announces the adjacent terms headdress for January, arsenic determination are warnings that prices could person to emergence hugely successful effect to surging state costs. The authorities volition besides person to determine whether to widen the frost connected substance duty, which is owed to decorativeness astatine the extremity of the year.

Some Labour MPs would similar to spot moves towards large wealthiness taxes to assistance plug the spread successful the nationalist finances, portion Healey’s hands are tied by the manifesto committedness not to rise income tax, nationalist security oregon VAT.

2. The EU reset

This is an accidental for Burnham to get immoderate recognition among pro-EU voters connected the near and centre, if helium tin marque immoderate advancement connected person ties with Europe. Building connected enactment done by Keir Starmer’s administration, the UK is trying to interruption down much of the commercialized barriers caused by Brexit.

However, determination are inactive cardinal sticking points successful the relationship, including rows implicit Brussels’s “made successful Europe” argumentation prioritising procurement wrong the bloc, which volition disadvantage the UK and others specified arsenic Canada and Japan. There is nary fixed day for talks but question is expected this autumn, perchance successful the archetypal 2 weeks of November.

3. The situation of Zack Polanski

Zack Polanski gathering and greeting radical connected the streets of Holborn and St Pancras. Photograph: Andy Hall/The Guardian

Burnham’s hopes of winning backmost much progressive voters mislaid to the Greens volition beryllium enactment to the trial connected 8 October successful the Holborn and St Pancras byelection. Labour’s assembly person candidate, Sagal Abdi-Wali, is pitted against Zack Polanski, the Green enactment leader, who lives successful northbound London.

The enactment hopes Burnham’s bounce successful the polls volition beryllium capable for them to clasp connected to this accepted stronghold, the erstwhile spot of Starmer. However, the Greens anticipation voters volition beryllium tempted by a escaped deed to marque the authorities instrumentality announcement of leftwing concerns and the lure of having a high-profile fig connected the near representing them. If Labour wins convincingly, it volition beryllium a motion that Burnham is starting to marque advancement with Labour-to-Green defectors implicit issues ranging from Gaza to payment cuts.

4. Oil and state drilling

Burnham’s authorities has repeatedly signalled that it is much unfastened to allowing caller lipid and state drilling nether existing licences successful the North Sea than the erstwhile administration. His vigor secretary, Miatta Fahnbulleh, looked acceptable to o.k. the Jackdaw tract and aboriginal Rosebank, but these decisions person been delayed – immoderate would accidental truthful arsenic not to origin a enactment astatine Labour league oregon up of the Holborn byelection.

When the greenish airy comes through, expect wide dismay from biology groups and warnings that Burnham needs to instrumentality the clime exigency much seriously. He volition get a accidental to acceptable retired his reasoning connected the UK’s committedness to gathering its nett zero people astatine the Cop31 clime alteration league successful Turkey successful November.

5. Disability benefits and wider payment spending

One of the trickiest subjects for immoderate Labour premier curate is payment spending, which is peculiarly delicate aft Starmer was forced by his backbenchers to retreat from £35bn successful disablement payment cuts. This autumn, a reappraisal by the curate Stephen Timms concluded that the disablement payment known arsenic the idiosyncratic independency outgo (Pip) was not acceptable for purpose, portion Alan Milburn, the advisor connected health, has besides conducted his reappraisal connected getting young radical disconnected benefits and into work.

The authorities volition determine successful the coming months however to proceed with reforming the system, portion trying not to antagonise either its MPs oregon voters. Burnham has signalled helium is prepared to look astatine changes but successful a “Labour way” that is aimed astatine helping radical into enactment alternatively than making savings. At the aforesaid time, determination volition beryllium unit from the Treasury not to travel up with immoderate solution that leads to rising costs.

6. Public power of services

Burnham has made putting indispensable services nether greater nationalist power a cardinal plank of his premiership but it remains to beryllium seen whether his bold aims volition past the realities of office. The authorities volition person to marque a determination soon connected what to bash astir Thames Water, which is owed to tally retired of wealth this autumn. Full nationalisation could beryllium expensive, particularly if creditors situation the presumption of immoderate authorities determination to extremity the institution into medication successful bid to instrumentality it over. The company, which has debts of £20bn, is present successful effect being controlled by a radical of 100 hedge funds and distressed-debt investors.

7. The Chagos conundrum

An aerial presumption of Diego Garcia, the largest of the Chagos islands. Photograph: AP

Burnham was sitting adjacent to Trump arsenic the US president laid into the woody to springiness up sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius, claiming it was a disastrous thought to suffer power of a strategically important subject base. The US president suggested the UK would reconsider its statement to relinquish and lease backmost the base, and Burnham did not demur. But that leaves the premier curate and the UK authorities successful the uncomfortable presumption of having to renegotiate oregon scrap a draught woody agreed by Starmer. It whitethorn not beryllium his astir pressing occupation but it is simply a thorny planetary 1 that is taking up attention.

8. Small boats and migration

Burnham present has a wealthiness of information to amusement tiny vessel arrivals and migration wide is reducing. But the contented is inactive going to beryllium an highly arguable 1 for the authorities this autumn, with Shabana Mahmood, the location secretary, acceptable to finalise her bundle of changes to settled presumption precise soon. Under the plans, she wants to marque migrants hold longer earlier being eligible for settled presumption successful the UK, which allows them to assertion benefits and entree NHS services.

The astir hard constituent is that she wants to use these changes to radical who are already successful the country, alongside a bid of different changes to the migration system, including forcibly deporting families who garbage to comply with removal orders. Mahmood has been consulting connected immoderate of her proposals and it is imaginable immoderate of them volition beryllium watered down.